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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would not back censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”