Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Figures

The average number of per-day murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative statistics. However, security experts have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to point to improved countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Figures

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had over these months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the least amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, security experts cautioned that using murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it might mask days when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.